Guessing the winter ale
The winter ale goes into the plan for November. How much to brew is a gut call. Last year it sold out in two weeks and pubs were annoyed. The year before, a different seasonal sat in the cold store until February. You text some regulars asking if they want it, get a few replies, and brew a number somewhere between.
The trade usually finds out about a seasonal when the rep mentions it, or when it appears on social media, by which point the guest line may have gone to someone else.
Why seasonals are brewed blind
There is no simple way to ask the trade for commitment before brewing. Your brewery system takes orders for beer you have, not beer you plan to have. Sales notes are informal. And pubs plan their guest lines a few weeks out, which is about the time you need to decide the brew length.
- Seasonal releases are announced late or informally.
- There is no way to take an order for beer not yet brewed.
- Interest is gathered by text and not added up.
- Brew length and pack split are guessed.
- Committed pubs are not told when their beer is ready.
What a guess costs
Running short means disappointed pubs and lost lines. Over-brewing means beer that goes past its best, extra discounts and cold store space tied up. Both cost the brewer's time and your reputation with the trade. And you do not learn much for next year, because the guess was never compared with what people would have taken.
For cask in particular the timing is tight. A seasonal cask ale needs to be in cellars when the season is on, not three weeks after, and a surplus cannot wait long for a buyer.
A pre-order window for each release
- A release page per seasonal or special: name, style, strength, tasting notes, containers available, expected ready date.
- Trade accounts get an email or message with a link, and existing portal users see it on login.
- Accounts commit to quantities by container and choose a delivery week.
- A closing date before brew day, after which the totals are fixed for planning.
- Totals feed the brew plan and packaging split, with a margin you set for taproom, web and late orders.
- Committed accounts are told when their beer is ready and it goes onto their normal delivery day.
- After the release, a short report compares commitments, extra sold and anything left over, for next year.
| Stage | What the trade does | What you get |
|---|---|---|
| Announcement | Reads the release page | Early interest |
| Pre-order | Commits to containers and week | Real demand figure |
| Close | Nothing | Brew length and pack split |
| Ready | Receives a message | Delivered on normal run |
| Review | Nothing | Lessons for next year |
Brewing to real demand
The brew is sized from commitments plus the margin you decide. Pubs that committed get their beer and know when it arrives. Pubs that missed the window can still order from the margin. The next seasonal is planned with last year's actual figures. And your release pages double as the trade newsletter you never quite get round to sending.
Does this happen with your seasonals?
- Seasonals are sized on a gut feeling.
- Popular specials sell out and annoy pubs.
- Other specials sit in the cold store past their best.
- Pubs hear about a release too late to plan a guest line.
- There is no record of how each seasonal actually sold.