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Software Strategy

Seasonality and Budget Pacing in Ad Campaigns

Flat monthly budgets ignore when your customers actually buy. How to find your pattern and pace spend against it without starving the algorithm.

Updated 2 min readBy SpiderHunts Technologies

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Quick answer — TL;DR

Find when enquiries actually arrive, using your own history rather than assumptions, and weight spend towards those periods. Avoid cutting budgets so low in quiet periods that campaigns lose their learning.

The short answer

Most accounts run a flat monthly budget while demand is anything but flat. Weighting spend towards the weeks when enquiries actually arrive improves return without increasing total spend.

Use your own enquiry history for the pattern. Industry seasonality charts are a poor substitute for what your customers actually do.

Find your own pattern

  1. Plot enquiries by week over two or three years.
  2. Separate genuine seasonality from one-off events.
  3. Check whether the pattern differs by service.
  4. Look at day of week and time of day as well as season.
  5. Account for your sales cycle, since spend precedes enquiries.

Point five is the one that trips people up. If your cycle is six weeks, spending in the peak week is too late. The spend has to lead the demand.

Pace without starving the algorithm

ApproachRisk
Flat budget all yearWastes spend in quiet periods
Heavy weighting to peaksCampaigns lose learning in the troughs
Pause entirely in quiet periodsRestarting costs a learning phase
Reduced but continuousUsually the right balance

The bottom row is what most accounts should do. Cutting to zero means paying for the learning phase again when you restart, which frequently costs more than the saving.

Watch the competition, not just demand

Costs rise when competitors bid harder, which is usually at the same time as your peak. The highest-demand week is often the most expensive one, and the shoulder periods can produce a better return.

Check cost per enquiry by period rather than assuming the peak is the best place to spend.

Leave room to react

Hold a portion of the budget unallocated for the campaigns that turn out to work and for unexpected demand. Fully committed budgets cannot respond to what the data shows.

That reserve also covers the occasions when something breaks and you need to compensate, which happens more often than plans assume.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

The questions readers ask us after this guide.

Still have a question?

Ask us directly — a senior engineer will get back to you.

Ask about your project

Should we pause campaigns in quiet periods?

Usually reduce rather than pause. Restarting incurs a learning phase that can cost more than the saving.

How far ahead should spend lead demand?

By roughly your sales cycle. Spending during the peak is too late if enquiries take weeks to mature.

Is the peak the best time to spend?

Not always. Competition rises with demand, so shoulder periods sometimes produce a better cost per enquiry.

How much budget should be held back?

Enough to respond to what works and to cover a problem. A fully committed budget cannot react.

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