Every year it arrives as a surprise
In March the garden centre suppliers start shipping. By April the depot is full every evening, the trunk needs a second trailer three nights a week, and the agency cannot find forklift drivers at short notice. Everyone remembers that last spring was the same.
Then there is the pre-Christmas rush, a big customer's summer promotion and the week the building merchants restock after a cold snap. Each one is known in general terms. None of them is planned in numbers, so each is handled by overtime, short-notice vehicles and a tired team.
Memory is not a forecast
Depots have years of consignment data on the network system and in their own records. It is rarely turned into a view of what next month looks like.
- Volume history sits in the network system, not in a form you can plan from.
- Peaks differ for outbound collections and inbound deliveries.
- A few large customers drive most of the swing, and their plans are not shared.
- Staff and vehicle bookings are made week to week.
The result is that peak planning happens when the peak is already under way.
What an unplanned peak costs
Short-notice agency staff and hired vehicles cost more and are less reliable. Service slips when the depot is stretched, and that is often when network measures and customer patience are most tested.
Staff notice, too. A team that is asked to work flat out every spring with no warning is harder to keep, and the experienced loaders and planners you most need at peak are the ones with other options.
Customers notice as well. A depot that is visibly stretched answers the phone slowly, collects late and makes more mistakes, and the customers who ship most at peak are exactly the ones you can least afford to disappoint.
Quiet periods are costly in a different way. Without a forecast, you keep the peak vehicles and agency staff a week or two longer than you need them.
How we forecast your peaks
- We gather your consignment history from the network system and your own records, as far back as it goes.
- Volumes are grouped by week, direction (outbound collections, inbound deliveries), size band and customer.
- A forecast is built for the coming weeks using the history and known events, such as bank holidays and your customers' announced promotions.
- The forecast is turned into what it means for the depot: pallets on the floor, trunk spaces, delivery runs and staff hours, using ratios you agree.
- Your largest customers can be asked for their expected volumes through a short form, and their answers adjust the forecast.
- Each week the forecast is compared with what actually happened, so it improves over time.
| Forecast shows | Used for |
|---|---|
| Outbound pallets per night | Trunk capacity, collection vehicles |
| Inbound pallets per morning | Delivery runs, early shift |
| Floor pallets at peak | Space and handling staff |
| Largest customers' share | Conversations before the peak |
A forecast is an estimate, not a promise. It is useful because it gives you a starting point to book against, which you then adjust as the weeks come in.
Planning ahead instead of reacting
Agency staff and extra vehicles are booked when they are available and at normal rates. The trunk contract can be adjusted for the weeks that need it. Big customers are asked about their plans before they send them, not after. And the team knows the busy weeks are coming.
Does your depot plan peaks like this?
- Seasonal peaks are planned from memory.
- Extra vehicles and agency staff are booked at short notice.
- Service drops every year at the same time.
- You do not know which customers drive the peak.
- Peak resources stay on after volumes drop.