The gap every spring
Every year it catches someone out. Orders placed in late autumn should have shipped before the holiday, but production ran late, the factory closed, and workers returned slowly. Goods that would normally take weeks take much longer. Your best sellers run out in March, and customers wait.
Your buyer knows about the holiday. But with dozens of lines across several factories in different countries, each with slightly different shutdown dates, it is hard to work out which orders need to move and by how much.
Why shutdowns are planned by memory
Reorder planning usually assumes a steady lead time. Shutdowns break that assumption for a few weeks a year, differently for each factory and country. The shutdown dates are in factory emails, the effect on production is uncertain, and there is no systematic way to see which orders fall into the gap.
- Shutdown dates are not recorded per factory.
- Reorder planning ignores holidays.
- Slow restarts after holidays are not allowed for.
- Shipping capacity before the holiday gets tight and prices can rise.
- Factories in different countries have different holidays.
What an unplanned shutdown costs
Stockouts on core lines in the weeks after the holiday. Expensive air freight to fill gaps. Last-minute orders that the factory cannot take because its capacity is full before closing. And every year, the same scramble.
The rush before the holiday has its own cost. Factories try to finish every customer's orders before closing, so quality can slip in the final weeks, and inspection slots get booked up. Vessel space from the main ports gets tight at the same time, and freight rates can move. Orders placed late are exposed to all of that at once.
Other holidays matter too: national holidays in other manufacturing countries, and factory-specific closures. The same approach applies to all of them.
The shutdown calendar we build
- Each factory has a calendar with its expected shutdown dates, confirmed with the factory each year, and a restart allowance you set for the slower weeks after.
- The reorder planner uses these calendars when working out lead times, so orders that would fall into or across a shutdown have their latest order date brought forward.
- The buyer gets an early warning, well ahead of the holiday, listing orders that need to be placed sooner and the recommended quantities to cover the gap.
- Pre-holiday shipping is flagged, so vessel bookings can be made early with your forwarder.
- Factories are sent a reminder to confirm their dates each year, and their answers update the calendar.
- After the holiday, the actual restart is recorded, improving the allowance for next year.
| Without a calendar | With a calendar | |
|---|---|---|
| Shutdown dates | In emails | Per factory, confirmed yearly |
| Reorder dates | Normal lead times | Brought forward for the gap |
| Warning to buyer | When stock runs low | Well ahead of the holiday |
| Restart | Guessed | Recorded and used next year |
What the next holiday season looks like
Orders for affected lines go in early, with quantities that cover the gap. Vessel space is booked before the rush. Your warehouse holds a little more stock for a few weeks, on purpose. And the spring stockouts that used to come round every year become rarer.
Does this happen every year?
- You run out of stock after factory holidays.
- Pre-holiday orders are placed in a rush.
- Air freight is used to fill gaps in the spring.
- Shutdown dates are not recorded per factory.
- Your reorder planning ignores holidays.