Orders double on Tuesday and the packaging runs out on Thursday
Sales agreed a price promotion with a retailer weeks ago. It was in the account manager's calendar and in a deal sheet. The planners found out when the first uplifted orders arrived. Now the line is on overtime, the film for the promotional pack is not due for another week, and a key ingredient is on allocation from the supplier.
Then the promotion ends and orders drop below normal for a fortnight while the retailer's depots sell through the stock. The planners are left with ingredients bought at short notice and a spare shift.
The information exists, just not where planning is
Promotions are commercial agreements, so they live with sales. Planning works from orders and a forecast. The two rarely share a system, and the forecast is usually a spreadsheet built on average weekly sales, which smooths away exactly the swings that promotions create.
- Promotion dates, mechanics and depots are in the account manager's files.
- Past promotion results are not recorded in a way anyone can reuse.
- The forecast treats promotional weeks like ordinary ones.
- Special promotional packaging has longer lead times than standard film.
- The dip after a promotion is not planned for at all.
The cost of finding out late
Overtime and agency labour at short notice. Ingredients and packaging bought at spot prices or airfreighted. Service levels missed on the retailer's scorecard during the week that mattered most. And afterwards, surplus stock of promotional packaging and short-life ingredients that may not be usable elsewhere.
A promotion planner joined to your forecast
- Sales record each agreed promotion in one place: customer, products, mechanic, start and end dates, depots and any special pack.
- The planner looks at your order history for past promotions of a similar type and suggests an expected uplift for the planners to accept or change.
- The adjusted volume is added to the forecast week by week, including a dip after the promotion ends if your history shows one.
- Ingredient and packaging requirements are exploded from the forecast using your recipes and pack specifications, with lead times for each material.
- Planners see a list of materials that need ordering now to cover promotions coming up, and any week where line capacity is short.
- Once the promotion runs, actual orders are recorded against the forecast so the next estimate is based on what really happened.
| Who | Enters | Gets |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | Agreed promotions | Visibility of capacity limits |
| Planning | Accepted uplift | Week-by-week volume |
| Purchasing | Supplier lead times | What to order and when |
| Operations | Line capacity | Weeks that need extra shifts |
The planner makes a suggestion based on your own data, and your planners make the call. It does not know what a retailer will actually order.
What changes for planning and purchasing
Promotions show up in the plan weeks before the first order, with the materials they need. Purchasing places orders at normal lead times more often. And after each promotion, you have a record of what actually happened, which is useful the next time sales are negotiating depth of discount or depot coverage.
Sales benefit as well. Before agreeing a new promotion, the account manager can see whether the line has room in those weeks and whether the special pack can be printed in time. It is easier to push back on dates, or suggest different ones, when the capacity picture is in front of both sides.
Does this happen at your site?
- Planning learns about promotions when the orders arrive.
- Promotional packaging has run out mid-promotion.
- Your forecast is a weekly average in a spreadsheet.
- Stock builds up after a promotion ends.
- Past promotion results are not kept anywhere useful.