Sold out of sourdough at eleven, bin full of rolls at five
The baker comes in at five. The bake is the same as yesterday's and the day before: so many sourdough loaves, so many tin loaves, rolls, scones for the cafe, sausage rolls, a tray of brownies. On a sunny Saturday, the sourdough is gone by eleven and customers ask when there will be more. On a wet Tuesday, half the rolls go to the pig bin or a food waste app at a fraction of the price.
The baker knows the pattern roughly, but at five in the morning, nobody is going to look at last week's till reports.
Why bake quantities stay fixed
Baking has to be planned before the shop opens, but the information needed to plan it is spread around. Sales by product and day are in the till. Waste is binned without being recorded. The cafe's needs are in the cafe manager's head. Pre-orders for celebration loaves or catering are in a book. And the weather forecast changes the day's trade completely.
- Nobody works out tomorrow's bake before the baker goes home.
- Waste at closing is thrown away without being counted.
- Sell-out times are not recorded, so lost sales are invisible.
- Cafe and catering needs are passed on verbally.
- Weather and events change demand, but the bake does not.
What fixed quantities cost
Over-baking wastes ingredients and the baker's time, and bread is one of the most visible forms of waste in a shop. Under-baking loses sales, and a customer who comes for a sourdough and finds none may go to the supermarket bakery next time. Neither shows up clearly, because waste is not recorded and lost sales leave no trace.
The baker's job also gets harder than it needs to be. Being asked for more of something mid-morning, when the ovens are full of the wrong thing, is stressful.
The pattern is easy to miss because it averages out. Over a week, the total bake might be about right. But Saturday is short by a lot and Tuesday is over by a lot, the sourdough is always short and the white rolls always over, and the scones the cafe needs for a Thursday coach party are baked on top of the normal quantity without anyone reducing something else. A fixed bake is only right on an average day, and a farm shop has very few of those.
Waste has its own cost beyond the ingredients. Bread going out cheap at closing, or to a food waste app, teaches some customers to come late for bargains, which in turn makes the morning sell-out worse for the loaves you most want to sell at full price.
The bake plan we build
- Sales by product and hour from your till, so the plan sees not only how many sold but when each product sold out.
- A quick closing count of what was left, entered on a tablet in a few taps, and what was reduced, given away or thrown.
- Cafe needs, catering orders and pre-orders for the next day, entered by whoever takes them in one list.
- Expected demand per product for the next day, from recent same-day sales plus an allowance for sell-outs, adjusted for the weather forecast and events you mark.
- A bake plan ready by early evening, showing quantities per product and the reason for any change from the usual, for the baker to adjust.
- A weekly view of baked, sold, sell-out times and waste per product, to show where the plan is too high or low.
| Signal | What the plan does |
|---|---|
| Sold out early last three Saturdays | Suggests more for Saturday |
| Lots left at close on wet days | Suggests less when rain is forecast |
| Cafe needs scones for a group booking | Adds them to the plan |
| Celebration loaf pre-ordered | Adds it with the customer name |
| Bank holiday or event | Adjusts from last year's same event |
The baker always has the final say. The plan saves them the arithmetic and gives them the reasons, so they can decide quickly at five in the morning.
The bakery afterwards
Before leaving, the baker glances at tomorrow's plan: more sourdough because the forecast is sunny and it sold out early last Saturday, fewer rolls because they were left over, two dozen scones for a school group in the cafe. They change one figure and go home. In the morning the plan is on the wall.
At closing, the count takes a minute. Over the weeks, waste falls where the plan was too high and sell-outs happen later in the day where it was too low. You can see both.
Is your bakery like this?
- The bake is the same every day regardless of the weather.
- Popular loaves sell out by late morning at weekends.
- Unsold bread is thrown away without being counted.
- Cafe and catering needs are passed on by word of mouth.
- Nobody records when each product sold out.