Filling for a future nobody can see
Each year you decide how much new make to fill, into which casks. The decision is made with a rough sense of what the core range will need, some special releases in mind and the budget for casks. The cask stock is in a spreadsheet by fill year. Future releases are in the managing director's head and a slide deck. Nobody has lined up future needs against what is maturing.
The consequences arrive years later: a gap where a ten year old should be, or a surplus of one cask type that nobody planned to use.
Why laydown planning is hard
The link between filling now and releasing later is long and uncertain. Casks vary. Some are pulled early for young releases or cask sales. Evaporation and re-racking change volumes. Release plans shift with the market. Doing the projection by hand, year by year, cask type by cask type, is a big spreadsheet job that rarely gets updated.
- Cask stock by fill year is not projected forward.
- Future release plans are informal.
- Casks pulled for cask sales or young releases are not planned.
- Volume changes over time are estimated differently by different people.
- The plan is not updated when releases change.
What guessing costs
Shortfalls in age statements you want to offer, which can mean dropping a product or changing its age. Surpluses of casks that tie up warehouse space and cash for years. Cask purchasing that does not match future needs. And big decisions about releases made without seeing the stock behind them.
Your figures for evaporation, blending ratios and sales volumes are your team's judgement. We project with them; we do not supply them.
A maturation plan you can keep current
- Current stock is loaded from your cask register: fill year, cask type, spirit, volume and ownership, excluding casks sold to private owners.
- Your team sets assumptions per cask type: expected change in volume per year, typical use, and any casks reserved.
- Planned releases are entered by year: product, age, cask types, and volume.
- The plan projects each fill year's stock forward and allocates it to planned releases in order, showing what is left or missing each year.
- Filling scenarios can be compared: fill more of one cask type, less of another, and see the effect on future years.
- When releases or assumptions change, the whole projection updates.
| View | Question it answers |
|---|---|
| Stock by age and cask type | What will we have in a given year? |
| Release needs by year | What do our plans require? |
| Short and long | Where will we run out or have too much? |
| Filling scenarios | What should we fill this year? |
| Cask sales impact | What does selling private casks do to future releases? |
Deciding fills with the future in view
Each year's filling decision starts from a projection, not a hunch. The board sees years ahead where stock will be tight and can plan releases around it. Cask purchasing lines up with future needs. Private cask sales are made with a clear view of what they take from future releases. And the plan is updated whenever something changes, rather than once in a while.
Does this sound like your planning?
- Filling decisions are made on a feeling about the future.
- Future releases are not written down by year.
- Your cask stock spreadsheet is not projected forward.
- You have faced a shortfall for an age statement.
- Cask sales are made without checking future needs.