Binning croissants at four, sold out at ten
The bakery delivers at 6:30 every day: the same number of croissants, pain au chocolat, almond croissants and cinnamon buns as when you set up the standing order. On a wet Monday, a third of the tray is left at close. You give some to staff and bin the rest. On a sunny Saturday, the almond croissants are gone by half ten and customers ask for them all morning.
Changing the standing order feels risky, and there is never time to look at the numbers, so it stays as it is.
Why the standing order never changes
- The standing order was set when the cafe opened and has not been reviewed since.
- Till sales show what sold, not what you would have sold if you had not run out.
- Waste is binned without being recorded, so nobody sees the pattern.
- Weekdays and weekends, school holidays and weather change demand a lot.
- Bakery cut-offs are often early afternoon the day before, when you are busy.
What the wrong order costs
Pastries in the bin are paid-for stock thrown away. Sell-outs lose the sale and sometimes the coffee that goes with it, because a customer who wanted breakfast goes elsewhere. Regulars who never get their almond croissant after ten stop expecting one. And too much discounting at the end of the day teaches people to wait for the reduced price.
How we build the daily pastry order
- We read pastry sales from your till by item and time of sale.
- The time each item last sold is used to spot likely sell-outs, and staff can tap a sold-out button on the till or a tablet so the time is exact.
- At close, staff log what is left of each item on a phone, with what happened to it: binned, staff, discounted or donated.
- The system suggests tomorrow's order by item, based on the same weekday recently, sell-out times, waste, and anything you flag such as a local event or school holidays.
- You adjust and confirm before the bakery's cut-off, and the order is sent by email or through their portal.
- A weekly view shows waste and sell-outs by item, so you can see if the order is getting closer to right.
| Signal | What it tells you |
|---|---|
| Sold out before lunch | Probably under-ordered |
| Leftover at close | Probably over-ordered |
| Discounted late | Close to right, but priced to clear |
| Weekday pattern | Different orders for Monday and Saturday |
How much waste you are willing to accept in exchange for never running out is your choice. Some cafes would rather have a few left than disappoint a regular. The suggestion follows the balance you set.
A day with the new order
At 1pm you get the suggested order for tomorrow. It has fewer plain croissants than usual because it is a Monday, and one more almond croissant because they sold out early last Saturday and the forecast is dry. You change nothing and send it. At close, the leftover log takes a minute. At the end of the month, you can see the bin is emptier and the almond croissants have lasted longer.
Does your pastry tray look like this?
- Your bakery standing order has not changed in months.
- Pastries go in the bin at close most days.
- Popular items sell out by mid-morning.
- Waste is not recorded anywhere.
- Weekend and weekday orders are the same.