Sold out on the first morning
You booked a Lightning Deal on your best-selling air fryer liners for a big sale event. The deal went live at 9am. By 11am, stock was gone, the deal ended early and the listing showed out of stock for the rest of the event, just when traffic was highest. Two weeks later, another deal on a different product sold a fraction of what you sent, and now those units are sitting in FBA heading towards an aged inventory surcharge.
Both outcomes had the same cause. The deal was booked without the stock plan in front of you.
Why deals and stock drift apart
Deals are booked weeks ahead in the deals and promotions part of Seller Central. Stock is planned in a spreadsheet or a restock tool that does not know the deal exists. FBA capacity limits and inbound deadlines for big events are published separately. And the uplift a deal produces depends on the product, the discount and the event, which most sellers keep only in memory.
- Deals are booked by the marketing side, stock is planned by operations.
- The restock forecast does not include booked deals.
- Big events have inbound cut-off dates that stock must meet.
- Capacity limits may stop you sending extra stock in time.
- Past deal results are not recorded anywhere useful.
What mismatched planning costs
Selling out during a deal wastes the deal fee and the traffic, and a listing that runs out during a peak event can take a while to regain its position. Overstocking ties up cash and capacity and can end in surcharges or discounting. Sending emergency stock by air to rescue a deal eats the margin the deal was meant to create.
There is also the internal cost of the argument afterwards about who should have known.
For seasonal sellers the stakes are higher. A gift set booked into a pre-Christmas deal has one chance. If stock arrives at the fulfilment centre after the event's inbound cut-off, the deal either runs with too little stock or gets cancelled, and the units that arrive late sell slowly through January at a lower price. The decision that mattered was made in October, when the deal was booked, and it was made without the stock position on screen.
The deal planner we build
- A deal calendar holding every deal, coupon and event booking, entered once or read from your promotions data where available, with dates, discount and products.
- A record of past deal results per product: sales during the deal compared with a normal day, at a given discount and event type.
- An uplift estimate for each booked deal from your own history, adjustable by the person planning it, with a clear note where there is no history.
- A stock check that adds the deal demand to your normal forecast and compares it with FBA stock, inbound shipments and stock at your prep centre or warehouse.
- Inbound deadlines and capacity limits for each event, so the planner shows whether extra stock can actually get there in time.
- Warnings when a deal is likely to sell out early or leave a lot of stock behind, with the options: send more now, reduce the deal quantity, or move the deal.
| Planner warning | Typical decision |
|---|---|
| Deal likely to sell out early | Send more stock or lower deal quantity |
| Stock cannot arrive before event cut-off | Move deal or accept limit |
| Capacity limit blocks extra stock | Prioritise which SKUs get space |
| Deal leaves large stock behind | Reduce inbound or plan a follow-up promotion |
| No past deal data | Plan cautiously and record results |
Planning a deal afterwards
When someone books a deal, it appears in the planner with a stock warning straight away if the numbers do not work. Operations sees upcoming deals in their stock view without having to ask. Before each big event, one screen shows which deals are covered, which are at risk and which products need stock sent by the inbound deadline.
After the event, the results are recorded against each deal automatically, so next year's planning starts from real history instead of memory.
The planner does not choose your deals. It makes sure the stock side of each deal is decided on purpose.
Are your deals planned like this?
- A deal has sold out early and left the listing out of stock during an event.
- Deal stock is sent based on a guess.
- Marketing books deals without telling the person planning stock.
- You do not keep a record of how each past deal performed.
- Event inbound deadlines have caught you out.